Steelonthenet blog

Steel industry comment and analysis

2012 world steel demand analysis

Our analysis of 2012 finished steel demand is that total world demand of 1413 million metric tonnes comprised consumption of ~644 mt flat products, ~660 mt long products and ~109 mt of tube. With respect to end use, some 39% of demand was accounted for by construction, with mechanical engineering and metal goods the two other dominant steel-consuming sectors [see chart].

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For further analysis and information, visit our website’s steel consumption page. 

Engineering steel – SBQ – in Europe

As the European engineering steel sector languishes because of declining or (at best) stagnant automotive production volumes, many European producers of SBQ bar remain in difficulty because of poor capacity utilisation in their engineering steel bar mills. This matter was discussed in our recent European SBQ sector report.

We now read that – together with rising automotive production in Turkey – Kardemir in Turkey is investing in a new SBQ mar mill. This investment seems well targetted and well timed. What a shame that some of our larger European producers of engineering steels could not undertake a Turkish venture of this form?

For more about Kardemir, see SteelOrbis news report.

 

New ‘responsive design’ for steel website

In order to offer site visitors a better user experience, we have just relaunched the Steelonthenet.com website in a so-called ‘responsive’ web design. The new design allows the website to be viewed on smart phones, tablets, laptops, PCs and TVs on screen sizes ranging from 240 pixels to well over 1920 pixels in width, with slightly different content delivered to users with different digital devices.

Why not visit http://www.steelonthenet.com on your preferred device, and watch the page width adapt to the screen size of your device?

We hope this redesign will make our website a little more user friendly – especially for site visitors with mobile phones and tablet devices.

Steel company valuations

We came across a novel method for valuing steel companies this week. According to Steel Guru, steel plants such as Corus Ijmuiden may be valued at $500 – $600 per tonne of capacity. Thus, the Corus Ijmuiden plant in the Netherlands – which has some 7.4 million tonnes of crude steel capacity – is valued at ~$4 billion. These valuations assume debt-free sale of the businesses.

For full article visit SteelGuru.

Global stainless steel output at new high in 2012

According to a MEPS report published today, global stainless steel output hit a new high in 2012. Worldwide crude stainless steel production in 2012 is estimated to have reached 34.6 million metric tonnes. This is ~2.6 percent higher than global stainless steel production in 2011.

For full MEPS report, visit http://www.meps.co.uk/editorial113.htm

Steel prices spreads – flat and long products

We have published charts showing historic steel price spreads for flat and long products on our website.

For long products, these charts show the historic price differentials between scrap and billet, billet and rebar, scrap and rebar – which are useful as a double check if you are looking at the feasibility study for a billet mill or a rebar plant, for example.

For flat steel products, the charts show historic pricing differences between slab and hot rolled coil, and hot and cold rolled coil. These margins provide a useful double check if you are investing in a hot strip mill or tandem cold rolling mill, for example.

To see the charts, visit our steel price spreads page.

Steel industry investment locations 2012+

Steel consultants MCI have prepared a map showing the locations of ~175 steel industry investments that are expected over the period 2012-2016. See chart below.

steel-capex-geography-2012+

The map illustrates several points.

  • A major focus on investment in coastal locations, especially in the Americas, in India and in China
  • Relative little investment in some regions such as Canada, the African continent, Western Europe, Scandinavia and Australia
  • Emphasis on investment in steel distribution in inland locations (USA, Europe)
  • A marked geographic focus of investment in India (31 investments from ~175), China (30 investments), Russia (27) – with investment in Iran (10 investments) prominent also and seemingly little investment (relatively speaking) in Brazil (3)
  • Much emphasis [despite the financial crisis] on investment in upstream plant (61).

For further information about historic and future steel industry investments, contact Metals Consulting International or see steel capex database.

See here for original copy of the steel capex geography chart shown above.

ThyssenKrupp’s ill-fated expansion in the Americas

In the week that saw the departure of three senior executives [all board members] from ThyssenKrupp, the question must arise – was the expansion plan in the Americas not subjected to some sort of feasibility study?

MCI steel consultants typically undertake market and related techno-economic appraisals for large steel industry investments. We double check current and future steel prices and other critical assumptions, including steelmaking raw material costs, current and future competition etc.

So the question arises – was ThyssenKrupp’s North American investment not subject to the normal due diligence type of investigation and if not, why not? Otherwise, perhaps there are also some consultants who should take some blame in addition to the executives from ThyssenKrupp?

For further reading, see Bloomberg news report.

LME steel billet prices

The current LME steel billet price is shown at $294/metric tonne. See http://www.lme.com/steel/latest_price.asp

Can the London Metal Exchange be correct about this? Other leading information sources such as Metal Bulletin show current ferrous scrap prices to be over $400 per metric tonne. Why should I pay $400 per tonne for my steel scrap if I can buy LME steel billet for under $300 a tonne?

Continuing with this apparent puzzle, other information providers show international steel billet prices at well over $500 per metric tonne. See steel billet prices on our own website for example; or visit other information sources. A differential of over $200 per tonne in the price of steel billet can make a massive difference in the viability of a steel project – so this is not a trivial matter in steel industry economics. 

All comments and suggestions are most welcome!

Steel industry consultants

Meet some of our expert steel consultants. At present, we have 16 professionals on the MCI consulting team. Our advisers can support clients with steel industry expert witness work, as well as with technical, market or financial advice relating to steel sector projects.

For further information, contact MCI@steelonthenet.com

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