Steel price outlook 2015
Our economists have been considering the steel price outlook for 2015. We have deliberated on this by considering the likely change in world steel capacity utilisation between 2014 and 2015.
Global steel demand [thus production] is likely to increase at crude steel level by ~40mt in 2015 (according to worldsteel).
Global steel capacity is likely to increase by ~60mt in 2015 (according to OECD).
On this basis, we calculate that global capacity utilisation will fall very slightly in 2015, from 76.3% to 76.1%.
Thus, we predict that steel prices in 2015 will be very close to (or fractionally below) average 2014 price levels.